A few odd things over the last few days that have sneaked in and tried to not get noticed.
Both Syria related.
Firstly a subtle media swing coming from the more right wing side of the pack, even including a one off from Sky, discussing the failure and end of the anti Assad rebellion. It's still very quiet but it's out there and growing and if Murdoch's minions have dared to mention it others will as well.
Secondly the tales of ISIL having expanded into Libya and moving its base there, in effect leaving Syria and going somewhere not (currently) being bombed. Cameron has mused that the RAF should move to bombing Libya instead of dropping the odd bomb in Syria and Iraq.
Now data analysis is like a three dimensional jigsaw, you take a load of odd shaped bits and put them together to see what the picture looks like, often there are several pictures possible so you end up going with what seems the most likely to you.
So other parts to this Jigsaw.
Russia has been reporting Turkey is massing troops on the border with Syria, Saudi Arabia has already said it is ready to deploy ground forces as has Bahrain, troops that would (if deployed by ground) have to go through Iraq or Jordan.
The anti Assad army is being defeated but failed to overthrow Assad along the way thanks to the Russians, in fact the Syrian army is taking back areas that have been in the hands of rebel groups for years with the aid of Russian airstrikes.
Unless something changes the Syrian rebels are defeated and only hanging on thanks to western support, ISIL are already relocating, give it 18 months and Syria will be back under Assad thanks to Russia (this leaves us with a dictator, a devastated nation, millions of refugees, all the resources back under control of a Russian / Iranian ally but most importantly NO THIRD WORLD WAR.
Which defeats many of the apparent reasons for starting the war in the first place (not the third world war, at least I really hope this whole thing was over resources and my leaders aren't actually trying to provoke WW3 for corporate profit and control).
Now the west won't stand for boots on the ground and western troops would become everyone in the regions new target but Islamic troops would be able to work from areas where they had friends (Sunni friends since we are talking about Saudi, Bahrain and Turkey).
So the west can't be there when the Sunni nations roll in to overthrow the Shia regions, take out the Shia leadership and turn the country back into a Sunni nation under Sunni leadership (puppets).
After all the media and speeches about how important it is to fight ISIL Cameron can't stand up and say Oh well that's it lads, we can stop now, there's no point in bombing Syria anymore as that makes him out to be a massive liar and warmonger (which he is).
Best solution then is to move the target somewhere not a threat and safe to bomb, somewhere that he can say is the new ISIL homeland to justify bombing it. Need to be out of Syria, lebanon's not viable as they are heavily engaged in fighting with Assad.
Can't bomb Jordan, oh no. Wait look, that shit hole of bombed out towns and cities ruled over by warlords and religious groups, that will do, nothing important there. What's it called, Libya, perfect.
By moving the attention of the west and it's population to somewhere other than Syria our man Dave hopes we won't notice what happens elsewhere. Which is going to be a lot.
If Turkey goes in on the ground they will either end up fighting the Kurds which they probably won't care about or directly fighting Assad and his forces supported by the Russians, Putin's tanks and men on the ground will (hopefully) act to block Turkey from directly attacking Assad because if Turkey INVADES Syrian and then starts ATTACKING Russian troops be ready for either the falling apart of NATO, some serious diplomatic arse kissing or WW3.
The Saudi and Bahraini forces could come across western Iraq with or without permission or go via Jordan. I can't see the Iraqi government wanting to allow a Saudi army (Sunni) into northern Iraq (which is strongly Sunni) as a likely result of that would be the defeat of ISIL in both northern Iraq AND northern Syria followed by the creation of a new Sunni state formed of land taken from both countries.
Going via Jordan brings the Sunni forces into southern Syria, Assad territory and many Shia regions where they will be as much an invader as ISIL. Which means they will be attacked quickly justifying a response.
Which also leaves us with the Saudis running the risk of killing Russians while invading Syria, unlikely to lead straight to WW3 but still messy since the US is providing the weapons the Saudis would be using against the Russians.
The Kurds will probably find themselves being attacked by or ignored by everyone and will take the chance to declare themselves a new nation across northern Iraq and Syria, possibly with Assad, Iran, Iraq AND Russian support since if they can get the UN to recognise a Kurdish nation it changes the borders and the areas where they can be attacked from significantly (a neutral Kurdish nation protected by the UN would massively piss off turkey (and others) but it's kind of difficult even for someone as two faced as Dave to argue against it.
My thinking is that we are sliding into the end game here, 18 months from now Syria will not exist as such, there will be a rump nation under Assad or his successor (Shia) with strong support from Iran, Iraq and Russia. A (possible) new Kurdish nation or a source of open warfare if the Turks and Saudis surround them and a region or nation aligned with Turkey and the Saudi block under a Saudi puppet. With all resources from that area (oil, chemicals, minerals and crops) vanishing over the border into turkey.
So time for the drum roll, the flash of light and the cloud of smoke to distract everyone's attention to a new area. Somewhere that has already been declared a threat and bombed, it's easier to justify going back into Libya to finish the job claiming that ISIL are relocating there than risk starting in a new country that hasn't yet been bombed.
Farewell Syria, while you will probably still be there in a few years it won't be as you are now.