A good friend of mine Hoz Shafiei who was born in Iran keeps a close eye on affairs in that nation and posted about the agreement that has just been signed between Iran and the five permanent members of the UN security council.
Iran will allow inspectors into its nuclear facilities to demonstrate that it has stopped all weapons research and the sanctions that have been imposed over the years will be dropped.
The agreement is called the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action and specifies that Iran can retain most of its nuclear infrastructure, and allows it to continue to enrich uranium on its own soil. But Iran must stop any new development and dismantle some of its existing infrastructure or mothball it for ten to fifteen years. Atomic Energy Inspectors are to be allowed access to these sites to ensure Iran is complying with the agreement though this is done with the permission of Iran and inspectors must request a visit, they can’t stage surprise visits. Failure to allow a visit will start a two week negotiation and if there is no visit allowed after that the deal will be ended.
In return sanctions will be dropped once the UN inspectors determine that the Iranian regime is honouring its side of the deal, accounts and international funds totally more than $100 Billion will be released and import and export sanctions will be phased out.
So Hoz posted about it and asked a question: The nuclear issue is off the table I wonder where the warmongers will direct their hate now?
Hoz is a great bloke with a heart as big as a car but he is simply not cynical enough for this world of ours.
The deal is done they say but nothing is set in stone. The deal involves lifting sanctions in return for access by nuclear inspectors amongst other things which should bring a reduction in tension.
But call me paranoid, people do.
Iran is still ruled by a theocracy that is fanatically opposed to the other major theocracy in the middle east, Saudi Arabia, you know, America's best mates who can do no wrong. Both hate the other with a passion and the Saudi's are already reported to have been making contacts in Pakistan to buy nuclear technology. The house of Saud has invested significant sums in Pakistani nuclear weapon projects and there have been a number of reports from senior security figures that Pakistan has either build warheads for Saudi Arabia which it is holding or will built warheads so on short notice. Saudi Arabia is a signatory of the Nuclear non proliferation agreement and cannot have nuclear warheads without violating that agreement and having the US go ballistic since Israel would be the second target for any such weapons.
But if someone else builds them and stores them no agreement has been broken and if Iran does deploy nuclear weapons the pressure on Saudi Arabia to not own nukes will drop significantly.
In addition Saudi Arabia has several dozen Chinese IRBMs, Intermediate Range Ballistic Missiles with the range to drop warheads on Iran or Israel.
These are older designs and very inaccurate, any conventional warhead they carried would be useless since they are very unlikely to drop anywhere near the intended target.
Of course these Chinese missiles were specifically designed for delivering unconventional warheads so accuracy wasn’t that important.
Anyone need a hint as to what I mean by unconventional warheads, yep chemical, biological or Nukes.
So if the Saudis think Iran has nukes they may well be able to get their own fairly quickly and already have missiles to deliver them, if Iran thinks the Saudi’s have nukes this deal will be dropped so fast it will leave skid marks.
There is too much hatred here and nukes are the ultimate first world big stick, they allow a nation to play on the world stage in a way that size or numbers of soldiers do not. As long as the theocracies are in charge of these nations, as long as religious extremists hate others more than they love their own children then this deal is simply a small and fragile step toward peace.
But we can live in hope for now.
Russia has been vocal and supportive of Iran and has often been its only real international ally in the face of unified western hostility.
Now as Russia and China establish closer trade alliances, combine the nations of the Eurasian Economic Union and Silk Road projects and others (India joins next year) Iran is looking more and more like a foothold in the middle east for what is shaping up as a new super power block that is considerably larger than the US OR Europe.
By striking this deal now the US looks like it is trying to pull Iran away from the Russo-Chinese alliance while it still can. After all the sanctions have not stopped Iran, all they have really achieved is to increase suffering amongst the population. Threats haven’t worked and as people have repeatedly pointed out over the years starting or threatening to start a war with Iran will simply create a much stronger desire for nuclear weapons and create even more fear and tyranny.
So instead of the stick we have the carrot. It remains to be seen how long the stick will remain out of sight and how long the carrot will be left to dangle but again, for now, we can hope.
Iran and Iraq are working together against ISIS, an alliance of Shia nations against a Sunni terror state. Saudi Arabia is bombing Shia followers in Yemen and funding money to ISIS who are following many of the same principles of fascist thought that many senior Saudi’s espouse.
Both nations, Iran and Saudi Arabia have taken opposite religious beliefs to extremes and give the impression they would happily wipe out the other given half a chance. This is not a recipe for peace and Iran's apparent willingness to stop nuclear weapon development will last about five minutes after they find out the Saudi's are trying to get nukes.
The proxy wars that are widespread across the Middle East and that are spreading across Africa and have even reached Russia (a group of Chechen Jihadists have recently sworn allegiance to ISIS). This fighting is all to often beyond the control of the supporting nations and can escalate or spread quickly and surprisingly. After all Iran is now supporting Iraq in fighting against an enemy that was formed to fight against Assad in Syria but broke free and now threatens more and more nations with terrorism.The possibility of one of these proxy wars turning into a conflagration that drags in other nations and creates the war everyone claims not to want is too high to ignore.
Then of course we have the only known nuclear power in the region, rumour has it Obama stopped the Israeli's bombing Iran's nuclear reactors several times. They are going to be agitating like mad if they even think Iran is hesitant in following the rules of the deal. Given that the Theocratic regime in Ira has declared that they intend to wipe out the nation of Israel you can be sure that every resource Mossad and other such intelligence agencies has will be focused on Iran and working hard to make sure there is no possibility of Iran getting the bomb.
But we can be sure nothing will go wrong with this, can’t we.
Then we have the defence industrial complex and the massive profits to be made in war. At present we have a huge money sink, ISIS, the barbarians that everyone hates because of what they do to the innocent people tortured and murdered every day.
Plenty of profit to be made bombing them. Then of course we have the constant jingle of sabres and the hyping of the Russian threat and the Chinese threat. The reds are coming, Russian bombers threatening our airspace, Russian warships in the channel. Lots of enemies to justify that huge military budget so Iran can be ignored.
Of course if peace breaks out elsewhere Iran will quickly be back on the target list.
This is a step, a good one to be sure but still just one step in a long road to peace. The tyrannical leaders are still in charge, the hatred is still there, and religion still justifies oppression and cruelty. The reasons why people wanted nuclear weapons haven’t gone away, just put on hold for the present.
This is another example of geopolitics in action, it is working for now but hope for the best while preparing the worst.
21st century geopolitics, they look a lot like 19th century geopolitics and how many wars did we have as a result of the mess our 19th century leaders created.