According to the UK General Medical Council web site, who should have some idea what they are talking about, I have found the following numbers which are accurate as of the last full year of record (2015) for doctors working in the UK.
Number of registered UK doctors: 281,138
Of whom men: 153,640 (54.6%) and women: 127,498 (45.4%)
Doctors who obtained their medical certification in the UK: 179,527
Doctors who obtained their medical certification in the EU: 30,472
Doctors who obtained their medical certification outside of the UK / EU: 71,139
Highest likelihood is that each will be citizens of the region where they obtained their qualifications so I am taking the numbers as given, this is an approximation.
Doctors added to UK registered medical practitioners list per year
A fairly consistent number year on year, let’s call it 12,750
Since 2010 ( a total of six years) the number of registered doctors in the UK has risen by approximately 40,000, or roughly 6,500 a year.
How long does it take to train a UK doctor: 5 years for degree, 2 years post graduate, 3 – 8 years as a junior doctor depending on specialisations. So between 10 and 15 years, let’s be generous and call it 10 years.
Number of doctors trained in the UK each year: 6,000
OK lets crunch some numbers.
12,750 new registered doctors per year but overall numbers increase by 6,500 a year, so the remaining 6,250 are leaving the medical register due to retirement or leaving the UK. If these are retirements this represents a very small number overall but it is still a number of doctors leaving.
Hunt is saying he will add 1,500 UK doctors per year, if they start next year the first batch will arrive 2027.
If Brexit in 2019 results in all non UK workers leaving that will be a total of 101,611 doctors leaving, a third of the total, meaning that the remaining doctors will have to work 50% longer hours simply to cover what is being done now.
The UK trains 6,000 a year and will continue to do so until Hunt’s additions arrive, if 6,250 are leaving each year this means from 2019 until 2026 an additional 250 a year will leave who are not replaced, a mere two thousand.
Then in 2027 the extra 1,500 a year will arrive, covering the losses and representing a net gain per year of 1,250. However by this point and assuming the UK population does not increase at all over the next 10 years we will have a shortage of roughly 103,000 doctors.
Starting 2027 this number will fall as the extra doctors are trained each year and the UK will have enough doctors to meet its needs, again assuming the population hasn’t increased at all over the years, in the year 2109.
We will have enough UK citizen doctors in 2109.
2109 ! ! !
Hunt doesn’t need to go after the Junior doctors anymore, he can sit back and relax, the doom of the NHS is assured, Glorious Leader May and her hard Brexit will have destroyed the NHS before the 2020 election as it collapses due to a massive shortage of doctors and a rapidly rising death count caused by doctors working 120 to 150 hour weeks and either killing their patients through tiredness or killing themselves due to overwork.